Techno-economic modelling and financial analysis  

Techno-economic modelling
‍for mining and critical minerals projects  

We convert the technical reality of a mining project into financial outcomes that hold under lender and investor scrutiny.
Most financial models start with a production schedule and assume it will be delivered. Minesmart starts with the technical inputs that drive the numbers, covering geology, metallurgy, costs, and schedule, then runs thousands of scenarios to reveal the realistic range of technical and financial outcomes.   
Uncertainty range modelled
Every input validated
Defensible under lender review
Project Developers
Investors and Lenders
Multilaterals & DFIs
Techno-economic model  
01
A simulation model that converts project inputs into a realistic range of technical, operational, and financial outcomes.
Technical, operational, and financial outputs
Every input independently validated
Value driver ranking and scenarios
Built to lender conventions
Who it’s for
Mining developers needing a model that accurately reflects the full range of technical and financial project outcomes.
Outcome
A complete techno-economic simulation model with every technical and financial assumption independently validated and defensible under independent review.
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Independent techno-economic assessment  
02
An independent assessment or reconstruction of a project's techno-economic model and assumptions, reviewing and validating the developer's model or building an independent view from scratch, with every input benchmarked against empirical data.
Built to FAST financial modelling standards
Every input and assumption independently validated
Material divergences clearly identified
Financial robustness objectively assessed
Who it’s for
Mining equity funds, royalty and streaming companies, and commercial banks needing an independent assessment or reconstruction of project economics before committing evaluation resources or capital.
Outcome
An independent techno-economic assessment with every key assumption validated against empirical benchmarks, material divergences identified, and a clear view of the realistic range of financial outcomes.
Request a model assessment
Country and corridor programme modelling
03
Country and corridor level modelling of critical minerals production, fiscal revenues, infrastructure demand, employment, emissions, and environmental pressures, built from mine-level technical and financial inputs under multiple investment scenarios.
Mine-level modelling at national and corridor scale
Multi-scenario production and fiscal projections
Infrastructure, employment, and environmental demand modelling
Formatted for policy design and investor engagement
Who it’s for
Multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, and programme teams planning national, regional, or corridor level critical minerals investment strategies.
Outcome
Country and corridor level scenarios showing production, fiscal revenues, infrastructure demand, employment, emissions, and environmental pressures across investment pathways.
Discuss your programme
See exactly what your model will produce.
The simulation starts with the technical reality of your project: geology, metallurgy, capital costs, operating costs, schedule, and financing assumptions. Thousands of scenarios are run simultaneously, with each input varied across its realistic range. The result is a probability-based view of project economics, showing downside, base case, and upside outcomes, plus the value drivers that matter most.
Your scenarios
P90 downside, P50 base case, and P10 upside scenarios, with independently validated inputs and documented assumptions behind each outcome.
Your deliverables
A complete techno-economic simulation model, scenario analysis, value driver ranking, and investor-grade model version ready for independent review.
Scenarios evaluated
10,000+
Scenarios per simulation run. Every material technical and financial input varied simultaneously.
Request your model
ANALYTICAL ADVANTAGE

From technical uncertainty to investment clarity

Stochastic by design

Every material input is varied simultaneously across thousands of scenarios, producing P10, P50, and P90 outcomes that show the realistic downside, base case, and upside range.

Techno-economic integration

Technical inputs and economic logic are built into one simulation, so physical performance, costs, revenues, funding constraints, and investment outcomes are tested together.

Independently validated

Material inputs and assumptions are validated against comparable projects, empirical evidence, and industry references before entering the model, strengthening confidence under independent review.

Finance ready

Built with lender convention architecture from the outset, including debt service coverage, loan life coverage, waterfalls, covenant testing, and committee ready outputs.
"The numbers a lender accepts are the ones they can verify independently. We build models that can be opened, audited, and defended without us in the room."
Pieter du Plessis
Co-Founder and Principal,Minesmart Partners
OUR PROCESS
How we turn project complexity into defensible investment economics
01
Collect and structure
We gather the technical, financial, schedule, infrastructure, and operating inputs that drive project economics. Each input is organised by source, date, confidence level, and relevance before it enters the model.
02
Validate independently
Material assumptions are tested against comparable projects, empirical evidence, and industry references. Where inputs fall outside reasonable ranges, the variance is documented, challenged, and resolved before modelling begins.
03
Build and simulate
Validated inputs are converted into an integrated techno-economic simulation. Thousands of scenarios are run simultaneously, producing probability-based outputs rather than a single base case with isolated sensitivities.
04
Analyse and interpret
We identify the assumptions that drive value, downside exposure, funding pressure, and investment risk. The result is not just a model output, but a clear interpretation of what matters and why.
05
Deliver and document
The final model is delivered with transparent formulas, traceable assumptions, and project finance architecture included from the outset. It is designed for independent review, lender scrutiny, and investment committee use.
FAQ

Questions we hear every time

Developers, investors, lenders, funds, governments, and institutions ask specific questions about how the model works and what it produces. Here are the most common.
What does a techno-economic simulation model actually produce?

The model produces a probability-based view of project economics, not a single base case. It runs thousands of scenarios across validated project inputs to show P90 downside, P50 base case, and P10 upside outcomes, together with the value drivers that contribute most to uncertainty.

How is this different from a standard financial model with sensitivity analysis?

A standard financial model usually starts with a production schedule and tests selected variables one at a time. This model starts with the project conditions that drive the economics and varies material inputs simultaneously, showing how technical, operating, cost, schedule, market, and financing risks combine in practice.

What inputs does the model require?

The model draws on project-wide inputs across geology, mining, metallurgy, infrastructure, logistics, schedule, capital costs, operating costs, workforce, commodity prices, financing assumptions, and environmental and social risk factors. Each input is assigned a realistic range, validated where possible, and documented before entering the simulation.

Can investors and lenders commission a model review independently?

Yes. The independent model assessment is designed for investors, lenders, royalty companies, and streaming firms evaluating a project without developer influence over the conclusions. It tests the financial model and key assumptions, identifies material divergences, and provides an independent view of financial robustness.

How is the model built to withstand investor and lender scrutiny?

Every material assumption is documented, traceable, and tested against comparable projects, empirical evidence, or recognised industry references. The model is built with transparent formulas and lender convention architecture, so it can be opened, reviewed, and challenged without being rebuilt.

How does this service connect to the other Minesmart services?

The services work together. The Investment Readiness Assessment identifies gaps across the investment case. The techno-economic simulation model quantifies the technical and financial implications of those gaps. The integrated risk work then converts priority risks into decision-ready scenarios for the investment case..

Get Started

Get your project approved, financed, and delivered.

Tell us about your project. We will identify the gaps blocking approvals and financing, surface the value drivers that strengthen your investment case, and quantify the risks that could derail it, so you can move forward with confidence.
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